In this newsletter we share new data on the K-12 LMS market, and we provide an update on the LMS market slowdown.

K-12 LMS Market Data

We have collected data on over 3,300 school districts in the US and Canada, representing roughly 75% of registered K-12 students, and showing primary and secondary LMS usage and historical information where available. The data is available with interactive views, where you can filter and sort the data in multiple views for $4,000 per year. The views include market share per different enrollment bands and country and region, distribution of district enrollment size per vendor, average age of implementation per vendor, with more charts to be added over time. New data is being collected and added all the time, and our K-12 subscribers will have the most up-to-date data available.

We have a new subscriber section on the https://mindwires.com website with the K-12 market data, with top-of-site navigation between registration (subscribe here), the actual market data (subscriber content), and Log In pages always available.

  • You can subscribe using the discount code HECORP19 (our corporate subscribers get a $1,900 discount, for a $2,100 price per year) or HEACAD19 (our academic institution subscribers get a $1,000 discount, for a $3,000 price yer year) at this page: https://mindwires.com/register-k12-subscription/. 
  • You can login to the site here: https://mindwires.com/lms-subscription-my-account/
  • The actual K-12 LMS Market Data is here: https://mindwires.com/k-12-lms-market-data/. Once you have logged in, click on the ‘Sign in to Tableau Online’ button.

This is a new service and new method of data access, and we appreciate your patience as we work out any kinks in the system. Please note that the approval process – after you have subscribed but before you can login and access data – can take up to 24 hours. You will receive an email when your account is fully set up.

For those wanting a deeper dive into the data, we now offer raw data exports in excel format on a customized but limited basis. For more details or if you have any questions, please contact Jeanette Wiseman at jeanette@mindwires.com.

Market Slowdown Update

In our mid-year LMS Market report this summer, we described the ongoing slowdown in terms of the number of LMS switches occurring each year, concluding:

“The next few months are likely to shape the trajectory of the market for the rest of the year. The summer and early fall is when we are most likely to observe new institutional decisions made during the Spring academic term. It is also a peak for schools completing a migration. For now, the slowdown continues, but watch for updates in the coming months as more data becomes available.”

We now have updated data through September, 2019, and it is clear that the LMS market slowdown continues. Keep in mind, that we are using Trailing 12 Month data, so some of the recent drops come from changes started last summer. But the key point is that we see no signs of a reversal of the market slowdown.

I was asked by a reporter at Inside Higher Ed today about the likely causes of the slowdown. I suspect this is a complex answer – no one reason – with the following candidates:

  • Blackboard has improved its retention thanks to better performance overall, progress on SaaS and Ultra, and aggressive negotiations.
  • The market mentality has changed since Canvas became the market leader in North America – this market tends to favor upstarts and to limit leaders.
  • With D2L’s and Blackboard’s move to cloud hosting and improvements in intuitive product design, Canvas no longer has a simple story to tell – the differences between vendors are more nuanced.
  • Canvas thus far has not lost a primary LMS customer, so the more clients they gain, the more that are effectively off the market as long as this streak continues.
  • Many colleges and universities are thinking about existential questions due to enrollment declines and tuition / student debt pressure, and the LMS is not perceived as central to these questions as is online education and the OPM market. Campus priorities are changing.

With that situation in mind, however, it is worth noting that there are several large system LMS evaluations in progress: Texas A&M, City University of New York (CUNY), and State University of New York (SUNY). We believe SUNY evaluation is expected to be a centralized system decision that will occur in 2020.

If anyone has updates or insights on these evaluations, including corrections, please send a note to phil@mindwires.com.

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The MindWires Team