You can find the LMS Monthly Report for October 2019 here.

This was a big month for Canvas for First Seen, as many new clients were disclosed as part of the Q3 earnings call and associated back-and-forth with the company. This put Canvas above D2L Brightspace again in T3M First Seen, but we have recently heard of a large system win for D2L that will likely be in the November report.

Reminder – Data Methods

We are constantly collecting data, including historical data. Over time our reporting gets greater coverage and accuracy. But this means that we will always have a bias on new implementations data, where the most recent months might be low by 15 – 30%. This is why we rely on snapshot data for many of our trend analysis, capturing the data as we knew it at the time, thus removing the bias.

Blog Post Kerfuffle

During Instructure’s Q3 earnings call last week, they called out the market slowdown analysis and appeared to say it is not happening. I wrote a blog post pointing out the changing terminology of Canvas. Since this time Instructure has said that “your data might be correct”, but that they as a company were focused on Canvas bookings. This is a fair point, but it is also a significant change in how they report new clients, and it is important to understand that Canvas LMS is the core system. Our data in this month’s report reflects the new information from the earnings call as well as the corrections they made to their new client blog post (e.g. CalPoly Pomona is not a Canvas LMS client). Furthermore, it was Instructure’s deliberate choice to conflate LMS market slowdown and Canvas bookings in the lead-off paragraph of the earnings call discussion.

We will continually look at our data and methods to see where we might be missing important updates, and we commit that we will share updates with you as we learn more. In the meantime, count one more holiday party I won’t be invited to this year.

Blackboard Hosting Model Data

We have new data collection features that allow us to separate out Blackboard Learn by Self-hosting, Managed-hosting, and SaaS-hosting models. We plan to release some information on this new data, so we wanted to share with premium investors first. The first view is Learn SaaS adoption by country:

The second view is looking at the age of institutions on Bb Learn based on their current hosting model, reported globally for higher ed, and in North America for K-12:

This new data should really help out with a key question that many investors have had – how to model Bb Learn attrition rates – as the adoption of Learn SaaS is one of the best methods that company has had to improve client retention. On the other hand, at some point Blackboard will have to end-of-life one or both of the non-SaaS hosting models, and we suspect this may be announced in 2020.

As always, let us know if you have any questions or comments.

Thanks!

Sincerely,

Phil for
The MindWires Team